Colorado snowpack update: Storm relief forecast to combat persistent melt off

Colorado’s SNOTEL network is reporting a snowpack that is below median average statewide, but also very uneven across the state; the south has all the snow, the north has all the dirt.

The northern mountain river basins’ snowpack is still well-below average, with only the Colorado River basin still greater than 50%. The southern mountain river basins’ snowpack is holding strong, especially in the two southwestern basins that drain through Durango and Alamosa.

But forecasters think the state’s snowpack will be turning the corner, in a good way, as two storms are predicted heading into the third week of November.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its newest update on the still growing El Niño on Thursday, and the results simply states that a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January-March 2027.

Statewide Snow Water Equivalent snapshot:

• Current as of: Nov. 12 (117 of 118 stations reporting; 104 have both a current value and a median)
• Percent of median: about 74%
• Percent of median peak: about 7%
• Days until median peak: about 148 days
• Percentile: about the 22nd (this year’s average of 1.2 inches of snow water equivalent per station is higher than 10 of the 35 years from 1991 to 2025 on this date)

Snow water equivalent by river basin:

• Rio Grande (13 sites): 174% of median, the highest in the state, with about 2.1 inches of snow water equivalent per site.
• San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan (17 sites): 171% of median, with about 2.5 inches per site, the most per site of any basin.
• Arkansas (6 sites): 110% of median and about 1.5 inches per site.
• Gunnison (10 sites): 125% of median and about 1.8 inches per site.
• Colorado (26 sites): 51% of median, with about 1.0 inch per site.
• North Platte (5 sites): 33% of median and about 1.0 inch per site.
• South Platte (18 sites): 32% of median and about 0.6 inches per site.
• Yampa-White (9 sites): 29% of median, the lowest of the eight groups, with about 0.5 inches per site.

Sites with the most snow

Snow water equivalent (SWE) is the depth of water you would get if the snowpack were melted, a better measure of how much water is stored than snow depth.

Site	Basin	Elevation (ft)	SWE (in.)	Median (in.)	7-day change (in.)
Beartown	Rio Grande	11,580	11.1	2.4	-0.4
Wolf Creek Summit	San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan	10,930	7.2	4.4	-0.3
Red Mountain Pass	San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan	11,060	6.8	2.8	-0.3
Middle Creek	Rio Grande	11,260	6.5	2.8	-0.8
Slumgullion	Gunnison	11,560	5.8	2.6	-0.2

The statewide average was nearly unchanged over the past week (1.56 inches per station on Nov. 5, 1.55 inches on Nov. 12), and all five of the sites above lost a little.

The biggest 7-day gains were small: Columbine in the North Platte basin (+0.7 inches, all in the last 24 hours), Joe Wright (+0.6), and Loveland Basin and Lynx Pass (+0.5 each).

Other 24-hour gains were Mineral Creek, Buffalo Park and Bear River at +0.4 inches each. None of these changes exceeded an inch.

Snow in the forecast:

A mid November storm is forecast to bring snow to many parts of Colorado from Nov. 13 to 15, with the main impacts being from 8 a.m. Saturday to 8 a.m. Sunday and the heaviest rain/snow on Saturday evening.

The ECMWF model run from Friday, Nov. 13 at 00Z has rain and snow moving into the San Juan Mountains and southwestern Colorado by around midnight Saturday. The storm will continue pushing across southern Colorado through midnight Sunday, with approximately 5-10″ of snow to fall on the higher terrain above 9,000 feet.

Lighter amounts of snow are forecast to fall in the central mountains (between 1-4″), and even less for the northern mountains (Trace-2″).

A second, larger storm is forecast to enter Colorado sometime around late Friday, Nov. 20. This storm is forecasted currently to bring more widespread snow to all three Colorado mountain zones.

El Niño update

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s ENSO diagnostic discussion, issued on Friday, Nov. 12, keeps an El Niño Advisory in effect.

The CPC said, “El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027.”

The agency put the chance of that at greater than 79%, and the chance of a historic event (a three-month value of +2.5°C or higher, exceeding El Niños back to 1950) at about 60% for October-December and November-January.

A strong-to-very strong El Niño tilts the odds for above-average precipitation in southern Colorado, but does not guarantee a result, and Colorado conditions vary a lot from year to year. The update says nothing about how much snow Colorado will get this winter.

The next discussion is scheduled for Dec. 10.

Rocky Mountain Journal’s Colorado snowpack updates are written out for Tuesdays and Fridays throughout the fall, winter and spring seasons.

Some data for this report was compiled with the assistance of AI, then reviewed by the editor.