Colorado snowpack update: Statewide SWE 9x higher in 2026 than in 2025

Colorado’s snowpack building cooled in last 5 days, but still near median average for the date

Colorado’s snowpack has started the 2026/27 winter and 2027 water year with well-above averages in the southern basins, but remain well-below averages in the northern basins, with the numbers hiding a sharp north-south split.

Over the last 10 days, statewide snowpack as settled back to about average, and since Nov. 5, the statewide snowpack has barely changed.

However, the mean snow water equivalent on Nov. 5, 2025 was 0.17 inch, but on Nov. 5, 2026, it was 1.56 inches, roughly nine times higher.

Statewide Snow Water Equivalent snapshot:

• Current as of: Nov. 10
• Percent of median: about 90% (calculated from 105 SNOTEL sites that report both a current value and a median)
• Percent of median peak: about 8%
• Days until median peak: 150 days
• Percentile: about the 35th percentile (12 of the 35 seasons from 1991 to 2025 had less snow per station on this date)

Snow water equivalent by river basin:

• Rio Grande (16 sites): About 223% of median, with a typical 3.0 inches of snow water equivalent per site. This is the highest percentage of the eight basin groups.
• San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan (19 sites): About 248% of median, with a typical 2.9 inches per site.
• Arkansas (6 sites): About 126% of median, with a typical 1.5 inches per site.
• Gunnison (11 sites): About 164% of median, with a typical 2.0 inches per site.
• Colorado (30 sites): About 64% of median, with a typical 1.0 inch per site.
• North Platte (5 sites): About 37% of median, with a typical 1.0 inch per site.
• South Platte (20 sites): About 32% of median, with a typical 0.6 inch per site. Of the eight basin groups, this one has the lowest percentage and the least snow per site.
• Yampa-White (11 sites): About 36% of median, with a typical 0.4 inch per site.

Sites with the most snow

Site	Basin	Elevation (ft)	SWE (in.)	Median (in.)	7-day change (in.)
Beartown	Rio Grande	11,580	11.3	1.7	0.0
Rat Creek	Rio Grande	11,680	7.9	n/a	+0.1
Wolf Creek Summit	San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan	10,930	7.6	3.9	+0.2
Middle Creek	Rio Grande	11,260	7.0	2.2	-0.2
Red Mountain Pass	San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan	11,060	6.9	2.5	-0.2

The biggest 7-day gains were at Ivanhoe and Brumley (both up 1.1 inches), followed by Kiln and Chapman Tunnel (up 1.0 inch each) and Saint Elmo (up 0.9 inch). Most of that came with the storm in the first days of November. No site gained more than 0.3 inch in the last 24 hours.

Last winter vs. this winter

The start of winter 2026/27 looks very different from last year’s.

Across the 118 SNOTEL sites, the mean snow water equivalent on Nov. 5, 2025 was 0.17 inch.

On Nov. 5, 2026 it was 1.56 inches, roughly nine times higher.

Statewide mean SWE jumped from 0.83 inch on Oct. 31 to 1.58 inches on Nov. 4 after an early-November storm, then held between 1.56 to 1.58 inches through Nov. 9.

Mean accumulated precipitation held near 6.30 inches over the same stretch, ticking up 0.01 inch on Nov. 9 On average, the network has recorded essentially no new precipitation for five days.

Last year’s curve was flat for longer. Mean SWE moved from 0.21 inch on Nov. 1, 2025 to just 0.26 inch on Nov. 15, with accumulated precipitation edging from 3.56 to 3.65 inches.

A storm on Nov. 16, 2025 pushed the mean to 0.53 inch by Nov. 21, and it reached 0.90 inch by Nov. 25. It was 1.67 inches on Dec. 1.

This year’s early-November dry spell has been shorter so far and has started from a much higher base. A few dry days is a similarity in pattern, not proof of a similar season.

Dry stretches in early to mid November are common and are not a reliable signal.

Using NRCS SNOTEL data for 1991 to 2025, we compared mean SWE per station on Nov. 5 with the following April 1. The correlation is modest (about 0.42; about 0.30 when seasons are ranked).

The sample is only 35 seasons, and the network has grown over the years. The 2016/17 season also began with about 0.17 inch on Nov. 5 and went on to a large April 1 pack of about 17 inches per station.

Last season (2025/26) began at the same 0.17 inch, and April 1, 2026 came in at about 4.1 inches per station, the lowest of any season in the SNOTEL-era record; the March 1, 2026 mean was 7.9 inches. Early-November totals tell us little about how the season will go.

Editor’s Note: These statistics were calculated from NRCS SNOTEL data, and we are not predicting this winter’s snowfall.

El Niño update

The Intermountain West Drought Status Update, issued Oct. 15 by NIDIS said forecasters see a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño, citing NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

It says above-normal precipitation is favored across much of the Four Corners this winter, with the strongest signal in Arizona and New Mexico, and extending into southern Utah and Colorado. It also says above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the West, which could reduce snow accumulation.

The update cautions that every El Niño is different and that many factors affect winter conditions. A strong El Niño tilts the odds but does not guarantee a wetter season, and Colorado conditions vary a lot from year to year.

The update also notes that one season will not erase the deep deficits built up over several years. Read the full NIDIS update.

Rocky Mountain Journal’s Colorado snowpack updates are written out for Tuesdays and Fridays throughout the fall, winter and spring seasons.

Some data for this report was compiled with the assistance of AI, then reviewed by the editor.